NFL breakdown: Dolphins second in East

The time for waiting is just about over, as the NFL kicks off with tonight's Tennessee Titans-Pittsburgh Steelers matchup.

The Dolphins kick off at 1 p.m. Sunday in Atlanta, the first of three straight games against playoff opponents in 2009. So, how will the Fins do this year? My AFC East predictions follows, as well as my overall NFL predictions for 2009:

AFC East
1. New England Patriots (11-5): Yes, Tom Brady is coming off a major knee injury, and the Pats just traded away five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Richard Seymour. But the Patriots have a wealth of talent on both sides of the ball, and with Bill Belichick at the controls, they are always a threat. Belichick may have done his best coaching job ever last season, when he took Matt Cassel and the Pats to 11-5, narrowly missing a playoff berth. With Brady back, look for fireworks similar to 2007, when New England set the all-time scoring mark, and Brady threw for 50 TDs and Moss added a record 23 receiving scores. The defense ranked 10th last year despite having a porous secondary. Belichick addressed that need by signing free agents Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden. Linebacker Jerrod Mayo should continue to improve, after massing 126 tackles last season. And Vince Wiflork anchors a good defenseive line that will benefit from the addition of Derrick Burgess. Still the team to beat in the conference.

2. Miami Dolphins (10-6): The Dolphins have a tougher schedule than in last year's worst-to-first campaign, but they are a better team than last year. Chad Pennington is now fully in control of the offense, after coming in off the street to play in Week 1 last year. Ted Ginn is entering the all-important third year when wide receivers typically start to flourish. And he has plenty of help behind him in rookies Brian Hartline and Patrick Turner, and veterans Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess. The team made its biggest strides defensively, as rookie corners Sean Smith and Vontae Davis were drafted to shore up a pass defense that ranked 25th a year ago. The additions of Jason Taylor and CFL sack master Cameron Wake should give Joey Porter the help he needs in the pass rush.

3. New York Jets (5-11): The Jets' opening schedule is as brutal as Miami's: at Houston, home against New England and Tennessee, at New Orleans and at Miami. I can't see them winning more than one game in that stretch. From there it doesn't get much easier, and breaking in a rookie starting quarterback and a new defensive scheme will take some time. Still, the Jets do have some good talent, with Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and sleeper Shonn Greene at running back. Dustin Keller is an emerging tight end, Kris Jenkins a good nose tackle if he can stay healthy and Darrelle Revis is becoming one of the best cover men in football. Kerry Rhodes and Jim Leonhard will comprise one of the best safety tandems in the league, and you can't overlook the impact former Ravens linebacker Bart Scott will have on the defense. This is definitely a team to watch in the future.

4. Buffalo Bills (4-12): It's never a good sign when you whack your offensive coordinator a week before the season starts, and an even worse sign when he says the team with Terrell Owens is trying to simplify things on offense. The addition of T.O. to a young and impressionable roster was already dicey, and if things go south -- as they should with Buffalo's schedule -- Owens won't be the happiest Bill in town. The Bills struggled to move the ball during the preseason, even with T.O. The jury is still out on Trent Edwards as a passer, and running back Marshawn Lynch is suspended for the first three games following an offseason arrest for gun possession. Defensively, the Bills have an up-and-comer in second-year cornerback Leodis McKelvin, and middle linebacker Paul Posluszny was solid in his first season with 110 tackles. Defensive end Aaron Schobel is back after missing most of last season due to injury, and Marcus Stroud should hold his ground at defensive tackle. There are some good building blocks here, but the Bills are another year (and perhaps a new head coach) away from contending.

Now, for my truncated picks in the rest of the NFL.

AFC North:
The last time the Pittsburgh Steelers won the Super Bowl, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was injured in a motorcycle accident and struggled the following season, and the Steelers fell to 8-8 and out of the playoffs. After last year's Super Bowl win, Roethlisberger was accused of raping a woman, but the Steelers have too much talent to repeat a playoff miss in 2009. They will not win the division though, as the Baltimore Ravens are primed and ready to supplant Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco has grown more confident as a passer in this, his second year, and the Ravens are about to unleash coordinator Cam Cameron's version of "LT Lite," Ray Rice, who will do his best LaDainian Tomlinson impersonation, catching passes and running the ball all over the field.

AFC South:
Many are predicting the Indianapolis Colts' demise after the retirement of Tony Dungy and the release of all-time leading receiver Marvin Harrison. But despite a rushing offense and defense that struggled last season, I think the Colts will be fine, and should win their division after a one-year absence. Peyton Manning is still running the offense, Joseph Addai will benefit from the addition of Donald Brown in the running game, and Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez and tight end Dallas Clark will keep the passing game humming. I also like the fact first-year coach Jim Caldwell has beefed up a defensive line that was mainly responsible for the Colts' woes against the run. Now, I'm going to jump on the Houston Texans bandwagon and pick them to finally make the leap and finish second, qualifying for a playoff berth. The Texans simply have too much offensive talent, and they have some star defensive players who should help make the difference.

AFC West:
Clearly the worst division in the conference, with the only team worth mentioning being the San Diego Chargers, who should win their division more comfortably than last year. The Chargers have too many offensive stars, and linebacker Shawne Merriman and cornerback Antonio Cromartie are both healthy after injuries torpedoed their 2008.

Dark horse: Tennessee. The Titans have a difficult schedule and won't repeat last year's 13-3 season, but they have a rejuvenated Kerry Collins and the two-headed running back duo of Chris Johnson and LenDale White. Their defense remains sound, even without Albert Haynesworth. If Indy or Houston stumble, the Titans could sneak into the playoffs.

NFC East:
If not for injuries, free agent defections and the death of coordinator Jim Johnson, I would like the Philadelphia Eagles to win the division. But the fact is, the defense suffered too many losses and did not look good in the preseason. Thus, I go with the safe pick, the New York Giants. The Giants are largely the same team that went 12-4 and won the division last year, except Plaxico Burress is no longer on the roster, and the G-Men added to their already deep defenaive line with the additions of Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard -- not to mention the return of Osi Umenyiora after a torn ACL ended his 2008 season. This team would be my NFC favorite if not for one glaring weakness: Wide receiver, where Eli Manning must work with the likes of Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, Mario Manningham and second round pick Hakeem Nicks. If one of those players can emerge and give Eli a reliable target, the G-Men may be booking hotel space in Miami in January. Despite the defensive issues, I still think the Eagles have more talent than the Cowboys, who have taken a clear step back since their 13-3 season two years ago. The Giants and Eagles will make the playoffs again.

NFC North:
With all the offseason moves, this division has supplanted the East as the toughest in the NFL. The Bears have the easiest schedule in football, and the addition of quarterback Jay Cutler should put them over the top. The offense is finally good enough to balance out what has been one of the best defenses in football the last few years. The Green Bay Packers are the second choice. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers will join the elite this year, and he directed an offense that was unstoppable in the preseason. The defense was just as good, forcing 23 turnovers in just four preseason games. The Brett Favre experiment in Minnesota will end the way the Jets' did last year, with Favre's team out of the playoffs -- and Brett once again engaging in another long offseason Hamlet soliloquy.

NFC South:
The Atlants Falcons will continue their upward climb with a division championship in 2009. Quarterback Matt Ryan should be better in this, his second year, and he has plenty of offensive firepower in running back Michael Turner, receiver Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez. Five new starters on defense -- including former Jacksonville Jaguars standout Mike Peterson -- should bolster a unit that ranked just 24th overall last season. Thanks to a difficult schedule (and Jake Delhomme at quarterback), the Panthers will finish second, but miss out on the postseason.

NFC West:
Like their AFC counterparts, the NFC West offers the least in 2009. The Arizona Cardinals had a dream season in winning the division and reaching their first Super Bowl, but losing Super Bowl teams usually miss the playoffs the following season. The problem is, none of their NFC West brethren are good enough to take the division from them. The Cards should cruise, with the resurgent Seattle Seahawks applying the pressure. St. Louis and San Francisco are at least a year away from contention.

Dark horse: Minnesota. The Vikings have the defense and the running game, and they've added weapons like Percy Harvin at receiver. But the biggest question is the quarterback. Can the 40-year-old Favre defy the odds (and his gunslinger mentality) to lead the Vikes to the playoffs? Well, Favre faded badly in his last five games with the Jets in 2008, and he does have a propensity for throwing bad interceptions to cost his team. If he can somehow curtail his tendencies -- and stay healthy all year -- Minnesota has a chance.

So, here's how I break down the playoffs:

Wild Card Round:

Steelers over Colts, Chargers over Texans, Falcons over Eagles, Packers over Cardinals

Divisional Round:
Patriots over Steelers, Ravens over Chargers, Bears over Falcons, Packers over Giants

Championship Round:
Ravens over Patriots, Packers over Bears

Super Bowl XLIV:
Packers over Ravens

(Photo: Yahoo images)

Marino 8th in latest QB rankings

You could see this one coming. As Dan Marino's achievements fade in this new era of the West Coast offense and more permissible passing rules, he continues to slide down the list of all-time greats.

Marino placed eighth on a Beckett's Magazine list of the greatest quarterbacks, and for the first time I can recall, modern stars Tom Brady (6th) and Peyton Manning (7th) were ranked ahead of him.

It has for a long time been a fait accompli, what with Brady's Super Bowl winning heroics, and the incredible numbers he put up in 2007, when he passed for 50 TDs and just eight interceptions. Brady set a new all-time record for TD passes that Marino once held for 20 years.

Manning cemented his claim ahead of Marino when his defense and running game carried him to a Super Bowl win in Miami two years ago.

Now, Manning's regular season credentials speak for themselves, but his 49-TD season in 2004 (which broke Marino's record) coincided with the NFL passing a rule limiting defensive contact with receivers after Manning's group was manhandled by the New England Patriots in an AFC Championship loss the previous year.

And, when I lived in Lake City and was exposed to more Colts games because I was out of the Dolphins' coverage area, it appeared that Manning was left in a bit longer than he should have been to throw some meaningless TD passes.

Case in point: Manning plays the entire game and throws five TD passes in a 49-14 win over Houston in Week 10. A week later, four TDs in a 41-10 win over the Chicago Bears. On Thanksgiving Day the next week, he throws six TD passes against the eternally hapless Lions, giving him 15 in three weeks. Again, he plays into the fourth quarter in the 41-9 victory, throwing his last two TD passes in the third quarter.

When Brady set the new record two years ago, his team was accused of running up the score, particularly in a 52-7 whitewashing of the Redskins in Week 8.

This was something that wasn't often done in Marino's day.

In 1984, when he set the then-record with 48 TD passes, the Dolphins won only one game by 20 points, meaning he had to throw those TD passes to deliver victories, not to pad stats as Brady and Manning seemed to do in their record runs.

Also, it's no coincidence that Brady and Manning both eclipsed his record after restrictions were placed on defensive backs in terms of contact with receivers.

That makes Marino's 48 TDs all the more impressive, and it makes John Unitas' streak of 47 straight games with at least one TD pass and his 290 overall TDs look downright remarkable.

Still, I have no real problem with Manning and Brady being ranked ahead of Marino, though I put them after him as their careers are still in progress (see below). They have the numbers and championships, while Marino unfortunately did not have the supporting cast to help him win a title.

Of the players on the list ahead of him, there are two I strongly disagree with, and a third I have an issue with (see below).

Terry Bradshaw won four Super Bowls with the Steelers, but his overall numbers were not very impressive. He had a poor TD/INT ratio, with 212 TD passes to 210 interceptions. He had four bad years before he became a good quarterback in 1974, and he benefited from perhaps the greatest supporting cast a quarterback ever had.

To place him at No. 4, like Beckett's did, is absurd. Bradshaw does belong in the top 10, but he belongs after Marino. Bart Starr, a great quarterback for the Packers teams of the 1960s, was also ranked ahead of Marino at No. 5. He didn't have great natural ability, but he was a winner.

Starr was only a four-time Pro Bowler, and had just 14 more TDs than INTs (152/134). He never threw 20 TD passes in a season. His ranking might have to do with the fact the Packers were the dominant team in the 1960s, winning five NFL titles.

Here's the Beckett list:

1. Joe Montana
2. John Unitas
3. John Elway
4. Terry Bradshaw
5. Bart Starr
6. Tom Brady
7. Peyton Manning
8. Dan Marino
9. Otto Graham
10. Brett Favre
11. Troy Aikman
12. Steve Young
13. Roger Staubach
14. Fran Tarkenton
15. Joe Namath
16. Sammy Baugh
17. Bobby Layne
18. Dan Fouts
19. Bob Griese
20. Jim Kelly

I have some other problems with the list, and one of them is John Elway. It's amazing what a great running game and good defense can do for a player. Elway was a bust in his first three Super Bowl appearances, including a dreadful 55-10 loss to the 49ers and Montana in 1990.

Suddenly though, Mike Shanahan comes aboard, as do Terrell Davis and a competent defense, Elway wins two Super Bowls, and he becomes a top-five all-time QB.

Had he never won a Super Bowl, Elway never would have been ranked ahead of Marino. And that's the problem I have with QB lists like these, which place far too great an emphasis on championships.

Peter King wrote a book years ago ranking his top QBs, and he made Otto Graham his No. 1 all-time because his teams won division or league titles in all 10 years he played.

So, because Graham had great players around him (nine Hall of Famers, if you count Coach Paul Brown), he's supposed to be better than Unitas or Montana?

I highly doubt that.

Elway had several mediocre years statistics-wise, and while I enjoyed watching him play, there is no doubt that in their primes Marino was better. Marino also played at a high level for as long as Elway did.

Elway had six seasons of 20 TD passes or more; Marino had 12. Marino had more yards passing, a higher completion percentage and a far better QB rating.

But, because Elway ended his career in storybook fashion, the myth has become legend. He became better than Marino in many people's minds, and sadly, that will remain the case in history.

Legends fade as new generations arrive, ready to anoint one of their own as the best ever. We've seen it in the NBA with Michael Jordan and Shaquille O'Neal, eclipsing the greatness of Jerry West, Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain in most people's minds.

And in baseball, where Barry Bonds was suddenly greater than Babe Ruth (before steroids), and Roger Clemens was the greatest right-hand pitcher of all-time (again, pre-steroids).

Well, football is a team sport, moreso than basketball and baseball -- where one or two great pitchers can carry a team to a title -- and the fact is Marino played with only three top-10 defenses in his career. Twice, he made the conference championship (1984, 1992). He had one 1,000-yard running back (the forgettable Karim Abdul-Jabbar in 1996).

Statistics are not the entire story, but neither are championships. You must place each in context of the circumstances surrounding the player.

And for me, the only QB who topped Marino during his generation was Montana, who had gaudy stats, the clutch play and the Super Bowl victories to back him up.

Finally, here's my all-time top 10 for you to dissect:

1. Unitas (set the standard for QBs in a different era)
2. Montana
3. Marino
4. Elway
5. Baugh (the first great QB)
6. Brady (will probably move up when his career ends)
7. Manning (ditto)
8. Staubach
9. Young (another underrated QB)
10. Bradshaw

(Photo: Yahoo images)