It's Henne time in Miami

A bad start for the Miami Dolphins got even worse with the news that starting quarterback Chad Pennington has a torn capsule in his right shoulder and will be lost for the season.

With Pennington gone, Miami loses the ultimate game manager, and one of the players most responsible for last season's 11-5 record and AFC East division title.

Pennington passed for 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and quickly became the leader of a young Dolphins offense. It's no coincidence that the Dolphins turned the ball over a league-record low 13 times in a 16-game season, a testament to Pennington's ability to make good decisions under pressure.

So far this season though, Pennington's struggles had mirrored the Dolphins'.

Through 2 1/2 games prior to the injury, Pennington had thrown just one TD pass, and an uncharacteristic three INTs. He also was the 27th highest-rated quarterback in the NFL.

Now, with the season on the brink of going off the rails as Miami faces a possible 0-4 start, it's Chad Henne's time.

Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano are going to see exactly what Henne has in the first extended action of his NFL career.

The second-year pro will make his first NFL start Sunday, after completing 10-of-19 passes for 92 yards and a key interception in last week's 23-13 loss to San Diego.

Last year, Henne played sparingly, hitting 7-of-12 passes for 67 yards in parts of three games.

He had a so-so preseason, though he was anointed as the starter in 2010.

Dolphins fans and the coaching staff will now get to see how Henne performs in the pressure of an NFL game, where the outcome hinges on his performance.

He has a stronger arm than Pennington, so maybe the Dolphins will be able to take the deep shots Pennington seemed to largely avoid so far this season.

And maybe Henne will be just the tonic Ted Ginn needs to break out in this, his third season.

Henne missed on a couple of passes to Ginn last week, as the Dolphins' top receiver did not make a single catch a week after torching the Colts for 11 receptions for 108 yards.

The most important thing Henne must do is avoid the traps a young quarterback faces: Not looking off defenders and failing to read coverages.

He didn't to do that last week, when he telegraphed a pass that safety Eric Weddle ran back for the clinching TD in San Diego.

Henne must show he's more like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Peyton Manning -- three quarterbacks who excelled in their first seasons.

Whatever happens, this is likely Henne's audition for 2010.

Will he make the grade?

That depends on the last 13 games of this season, a season that is quickly slipping away for Miami.

For added insurance, the Dolphins traded with the Kansas City Chiefs for third-string quarterback Tyler Thigpen, giving up an undisclosed draft pick next year.

Last season, Thigpen, 25, started 11 games for Kansas City and completed 232-of-420 passes for 2,608 yards. He threw for 18 TDs and 12 INTs.

Thigpen will be the most experienced quarterback for Miami, with Pat White a rookie who has played sparingly in the team's first two games.

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Dolphins fall to 0-3

The nightmare of a 2009 season continued for the Miami Dolphins, as they fell 23-13 to the San Diego Chargers.

Philip Rivers completed 18-of-33 passes for 303 yards in the victory.

Trailing 3-0, the Dolphins were driving for the go-ahead score when Chad Pennington fumbled the handoff with Ronnie Brown.

The ball bounded out of the end zone, and the Chargers ended up with a momentum-swinging touchback.

From then on, the Chargers dominated.

Vincent Jackson caught five passes for 120 yards, and Antonio Gates added five catches for 64 yards to lead San Diego.

Chad Pennington was knocked out of the game with a shoulder injury after completing 8-of-12 passes for 54 yards.

Fans who wanted to see Chad Henne become the future had to be disappointed, as last year's second round pick struggled with 10 completions in 19 attempts for 92 yards and an interception that Eric Weddle returned 31 yards for the clinching TD and a 23-6 lead.

Ronnie Brown had a decent game with 18 carries for 75 yards, but he was less effective in the second half, when he ran for just 24 yards as the Dolphins tried to mount a comeback.

But, what's happened to Pat White?

The team's second round choice from West Virginia has played less and less as the season has worn on, after an ineffective game in Week 1 vs. Atlanta.

In San Diego, White never took the field, and in the last two Wildcat-heavy games, he has not been involved.

Could this mean White isn't worth the pick the Dolphins spent on him? Are Tony Sparano and Bill Parcells admitting they made a mistake by drafting him, when they could have had an impact defensive player like USC's Rey Maluaga?

He certainly could have helped Sunday. Kendall Langford and Joey Porter each had a sack, but the Dolphins couldn't put consistent pressure on Rivers.

At 0-3, the Miami faces another must win at home against Buffalo next week.

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Dolphins look to avoid 0-3 vs. Chargers

After all but beating the Indianapolis Colts last Monday night, the Miami Dolphins travel to the West Coast to face the high powered San Diego Chargers at 4:15 p.m.

The challenge is a daunting one: Try to avoid going 0-3 against one of the most talented teams in the NFL.

Last week, Miami dominated the Colts statistically, except for the big statistic on the scoreboard, which read Indianapolis 27, Miami 23.

Miami rolled up 239 rushing yards, with Ronnie Brown being the primary weapon with 136 of them, to go with touchdowns.

Look for more of the same conservative game plan the Dolphins ran against the Colts, as they face an even more potent offense in the Chargers.

San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers leads the NFL with 688 passing yards, including a mind-boggling 436 against the vaunted Baltimore Ravens defense in a 31-26 loss last week.

Rivers has a variety of weapons in Norv Turner's attack.

Vincent Jackson presents a large target at 6-foor-3, and he toyed with the Ravens secondary with six catches for a game-high 141 yards and a TD.

Cornerback Will Allen is a full five inches shorter than Jackson, which makes this a troublesome matchup.

Rookie corner Sean Smith is Jackson's height, though he is not the equal in experience, which could be a drawback for Miami.

Malcolm Floyd -- all 6-foot-5 inches of him -- is another formidable red zone target.

The Chargers also have former Dolphin Chris Chambers as a solid third option, and we haven't even gotten to the man who will be Miami's biggest nemesis Sunday: Former all-pro tight end Antonio Gates.

Gates has been good in each of San Diego's first two games, catching five passes in each for a total of 161 yards. And he has to be excited about this matchup, considering the Dolphins have struggled to cover big-time tight ends in each of their first two games.

Future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez repeatedly beat Dolphins linebackers and safeties for big plays in Week 1, and he finished with five catches for 73 yards and a score.

But that's nothing compared to what Colts tight end Dallas Clark did last week.

Clark scored on the opening play of the game, an 80-yard TD -- beating a befuddled Akin Ayodele and Gibril Wilson -- on his way to a career high 183 yards on seven catches.

Gates is a physical and fast tight end, a combination of Clark and Gonzalez, and the Chargers have to know that is a weak spot they can probe all day.

The other most dangerous weapon for San Diego is in the backfield, but it's not LaDainian Tomlinson.

The once-great running back has only played in the Chargers season opener, and he gained just 55 yards on 13 carries before injuring an ankle. He missed last week's game, and won't suit up Sunday.

That's unfortunate for Miami, because LT's backup is now a better player.

Five-foot-six Darren Sproles scored the winning TD in San Diego's 24-20 win over Oakland, and last week he provided offense as a receiver, catching seven passes for 124 yards, including an 81-yard score.

If Dolphins linebackers have had problems covering tight ends like Gonzalez and Clark, what will happen when Rivers finds Sproles one-on-one with them?

Also, the Dolphins have to find what has been a nonexistent pass rush.

It was supposed to be bolstered by the return of Jason Taylor and the addition of Cameron Wake, but the Dolphins only recorded one sack last week, by Joey Porter, and the team has only three for the season.

The Chargers line isn't especially great, allowing five sacks in two games and missing center Nick Hardwick for the rest of the season.

Miami can also attack a San Diego defense that ranks 20th in the league and has surrendered an average of 25.5 points in its first two games.

The Chargers only have two sacks and rank 13th in pass defense, but remember, they played the Raiders' awful JaMarcus Russell in Week 1, so those numbers are skewed.

Also, they rank 24th against the run, so teams have been choosing that area to exploit all year.

Baltimore's Joe Flacco had an efficient day against San Diego last week, completing 17-of-26 passes for 190 yards and two TDs.

The Chargers defense also gave up 130 yards rushing againt Baltimore and 148 against the Raiders, meaning the Dolphins running game should continue its resurgence.

This should be a game reminiscent of last week's: Miami trying to bleed the clock, with San Diego having to make the most of its opportunities when it gets the ball in Rivers' hands.

Last year, Miami climbed out of an 0-2 hole, partly with a home win against the Chargers.

It's time for a new wrinkle from Sparano and company, who famously came up with the "Wildcat" last season after losing the first two games. And with their backs against the proverbial wall, the Dolphins will do just enough to pull out a 24-20 victory.

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Conservative Dolphins done in by Colts

As we've often heard, statistics don't always tell the story, and Monday night was proof of that.

The Miami Dolphins dominated time of possession, holding the ball for more than three full quarters.

They had 27 first downs to the Indianapolis Colts' 14, ran for 239 yards to Indy's 61.

Yet, by game's end, the scoreboard read, Indianapolis 27, Miami 23.

A must win for the Dolphins became a blown opportunity.

Yes, they had the ball for the majority of the game and kept the Peyton Manning-led offense off the field.

But the defense couldn't stop the Colts when it counted.

Manning read a blitz and hit second-year receiver Pierre Garcon, who wove his way to the 48-yard TD that won the game.

Then, the Dolphins went into the worst two-minute offense since Donovan McNabb gagged his way through the end of Super Bowl XXXIX against the Patriots.

With 3:18 to play, and needing 82 yards to score the game-winner, the Dolphins ran on first down, let the clock wind down to 2:26, then called time out.

They then inexplicably ran the ball again to get down to the two-minute warning.

Quarterback Chad Pennington resorted to play action fakes against a defense that was expecting nothing but pass, fooling no one and wasting precious seconds in the process.

Then came the coup de gras, as Ted Ginn, who had a good game with 11 catches for 108 yards, had the potential winning TD pass bounce off his hands in the end zone.

A pass to Ginn on fourth-and-10 gained 12 to the Colts' 30, but with no timeouts left, Pennington had to spike the ball with 12 seconds left.

A desperation heave followed, which was intercepted by Antoine Bethea, and the Dolphins' chances for victory vanished.

Just as damning was the previous possession, when the Dolphins and Colts were tied 20-20 and Miami was driving.

On third-and-6 from the Colts 30, the Dolphins called another run. Ronnie Brown got just two yards, and Dan Carpenter booted a 45-yard field goal to give them a three-point lead.

That is not exaclty going for the jugular against the Colts, and Manning made the Dolphins pay.

Brown ran for 136 yards on 24 carries, scored two TDs and ran the "Wildcat" flawlessly.

But in the end, the Dolphins' inability to get to Manning -- and to tackle in critical situations -- cost them as much as the conservative playcalling did.

On the first play of the game, as expected, Manning went to tight end Dallas Clark, who beat a befuddled Akin Ayodele, and safety Gibril Wilson could not wrap him up.

Clark's marathon 80-yard TD was a sign of things to come.

The Colts did not have the ball often, but Manning made the most of it every time they did.

Wilson and Yeremiah Bell continued to struggle, missing tackles and coverages, and Clark had a second straight huge day for a tight end against Miami: seven catches for a career-high 183 yards.

The defense got no pressure on Manning. Joey Porter had the team's only sack, and Jason Taylor was missing in action.

Now, at 0-2, the Fins go to San Diego to play the high-powered Chargers, and you can bet Antonio Gates has to be licking his lips right now after the way tight ends have feasted on the defense.

There are also rumblings that if things continue to head south, Pennington -- who had a solid game with with 22 completions in 33 attempts for 183 yards -- will be benched in favor of second-year pro Chad Henne.

If that happens, it might already be time to start thinking about 2010.

(Photo: Yahoo Images)

Manning vs. Miami Monday night

Needing a win in Week 2, one of the last players the Miami Dolphins want to see is Peyton Manning and his 1-0 Indianapolis Colts. Kickoff is at 8:30 p.m. Monday in Land Shark Stadium.

True, Manning has had his struggles against the Dolphins. In fact, aside from New England, Manning's 4-7 record as a starter against the Dolphins is his worst against any NFL team.

The Dolphins have also had more success historically against No. 18 than any team in the NFL. Manning's passer rating (76.3) and minus-2 TD/INT ratio are his worst numbers vs. one team.

But many of those successes came early in Manning's career, when future Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Marino was still throwing passes for the Fins.

In fact, since the teams were realigned into new divisions in 2002, Indy is 2-0 against Miami, including a 27-22 triumph in Indianapolis in 2006.

Overall, Manning has also shone on the Sunshine State stage, compiling a 9-4 record as a pro. The last time he played in Land Shark (then Dolphin Stadium), he was the Most Valuable Player in the Colts' 29-17 win over the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI.

Last week though, the Colts struggled in a 14-12 win over division rival Jacksonville.

Indianapolis gained 365 yards of total offense, but only punched the ball in twice.

Manning was still Manning, hitting 28-of-38 passes for 301 yards and a TD.

But the Colts couldn't run the ball, gaining just 71 yards against a rebuilt Jacksonville defense.

That was part of the reason for the Colts' demise last year, as starter Joseph Addai was hurt much of the season, and Indianapolis had injuries on the offensive line.

Indy finished next-to-last in the NFL in rushing, and the Dolphins held the mighty Atlanta Falcons to just 68 yards rushing in last week's 19-7 loss.

So, for Indy to win, the onus is again on Manning and his receivers.

Reggie Wayne dominated the Jags last week, catching a game high 10 passes for 162 yards and a TD.

The Dolphins corners were solid last week against the Falcons, as leading receiver Roddy White caught just five passes for 42 yards, and Miami rotated rookies Sean Smith and Vontae Davis at one cornerback position opposite Will Allen at the other.

With Wayne's running mate Anthony Gonzalez out 2-8 weeks with a knee injury, look for the Dolphins to double Wayne, providing more opportunies for young Colts receivers like Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. Newly acquired Hank Baskett could also see some passes Monday.

But just as last week, it's the tight end position the Dolphins need to fear most.

Future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez routinely beat safeties Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell in Atlanta, to the tune of five catches for 73 yards and a TD.

The Colts' Dallas Clark provides a similar threat, only with more speed, and in recent years he has become Manning's security blanket and one of his favorite targets.

Clark only caught four passes for 39 yards last week, but the Colts will line him up in a variety of ways (the slot and wide, maybe even in the backfield) to keep the Dolphins guessing.

Miami only had two sacks last week, but the Dolphins should be able to apply more pressure against the Colts' leaky line.

And that is the key. Can they get to Manning and do a good job on Wayne and Clark?

Offensively, the Dolphins must do more than their putrid showing last week, when they gained 259 yards against an inexperienced Falcons defense.

Most distressing, Miami could not stretch the defense and test the Falcons' young secondary.

The Colts only gave up 228 total yards last week, but Jacksonville did not have the weapons to probe a Colts secondary that was without one of its best players in safety Bob Sanders.

Sanders is still nursing a knee injury that might keep him out of Monday's game, which is good for Miami's running game. But the Dolphins must still find a way to threaten the Colts backline through the air. Ted Ginn (2 catches, 26 yards) must be better utltized for Miami to have a chance.

The other big concern is the Colts pass rush, particularly defensive end Dwight Freeney, one of the fastest at his position in the league.

Freeney had the Colts' only sack last week, and he is a major test for Dolphins left tackle Jake Long, who had his worst game as a pro last week, when he gave up two sacks against Atlanta.

The overall protection for Chad Pennington was poor, and one of the reasons why he could not locate Ginn or go deep.

The stats say the Colts should win. They have the better quarterback, receivers and pass rush.

But the Dolphins are at home on Monday night, they are the more desperate team and they are surely angry over last week's miserable performance.

This will be an exciting game, and Miami will prevail, 21-20.

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No offense dooms Dolphins

It was a loss that was reminiscent of the way the Dolphins started 2008: No offense and sloppy play.

The Dolphins' 19-7 loss to the Atlanta Falcons was also the continuation of a preseason trend.

Miami (0-1) could not run the football, gaining just 96 yards on the day.

The team also struggled through the air, as Chad Pennington completed 21-of-29 passes, but for only 176 yards, one TD and one INT.

The Dolphins didn't stretch the field enough all day, and the one time they did, rookie Pat White overthrew a wide open Ted Ginn by a good seven yards.

The offensive line was terrible, as left tackle Jake Long was beaten for two sacks, including one where he got run over by defensive end John Abraham.

Ronnie Brown also whiffed on a block that resulted in backup defensive end Kroy Biermann sacking Pennington and producing a fumble, which the Falcons recovered. Biermann and Abraham combined for all four of Atlanta's sacks.

Tight end Anthony Fasano was the biggest culprit, fumbling twice in key situations. The first time, he killed a Dolphins drive inside the Falcons' 15. The second fumble led to Atlanta's final points, a field goal by Jason Elam.

For a team with little margin for error, the Dolphins gave the football away too often -- four times on the day. Part of the reason Miami went from 1-15 to 11-5 last season was the Dolphins set an NFL record for fewest turnovers in a 16-game regular season with 13.

The Dolphins also could not stop future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez, who repeatedly beat safeties Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson for big plays. Gonzalez finished with five catches for 73 yards, and he pushed Bell aside on the way to a 20-yard TD.

Pass coverage was a weak point for the Dolphins' safeties all preseason, and it reared its ugly head against Atlanta.

The Dolphins did manage to shut down the Falcons running game, holding Atlanta to 68 yards. But Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was good enough to compensate, completing 22-of-36 passes for 229 yards and two TDs.

The Dolphins did not look good, and their offense needs to pick up if they're going to beat Indianapolis on Monday night next week.

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Dolphins should ground Falcons

After weeks of player moves, exhibition games and endless preseason analysis, the games are finally set to begin.

And the Miami Dolphins certainly face a difficult challenge in Week 1, at an Atlanta Falcons team that made the playoffs with an 11-5 record last year and is considered to be a rising power. It's the first of three straight games against playoff opponents for Miami. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. in Atlanta.

The Falcons boast one of the NFL's top offenses, led by second-year quarterback Matt Ryan. "Matty Ice" was a revelation in his first season, completing 61.1 percent of his passes and throwing for 16 touchdowns.

And he has plenty of weapons. Running back Michael Turner ran for 1,699 yards and scored 17 TDs in his first season in Atlanta, and he continued that dominance in the preseason, leading the Falcons with 187 yards rushing, two TDs and a remarkable 6.9 average per carry.

To stop the Falcons, the Dolphins must stop Turner first.

But even if they do, Ryan has several options in the passing game. Roddy White emerged as the team's best receiver in 2008, catching 88 passes for 1,382 yards and seven TDs, and Michael Jenkins caught 50 passes for 777 yards and three TDs.

Atlanta also added maybe the greatest pass-catching tight end in NFL history: Tony Gonzalez, who caught 96 passes for 1,058 yards and 10 TDs last season with Kansas City.

The Dolphins addressed their secondary in the offseason, bringing in rookie corners Sean Smith and Vontae Davis, along with former Oakland Raiders safety Gibril Wilson. The hope is they will shore up a pass defense that ranked 25th last year.

However, Wilson and fellow safety Yeremiah Bell struggled in pass coverage in the preseason, and if that doesn't change Sunday, Allen and Smith are going to have to be on the top of their game.

Allen will likely draw the assignment of covering White, with Smith covering Jenkins. Davis will play after suffering a knee strain in the final preseason game against New Orleans, but the Dolphins must find a way to match up with Gonzalez, who could be Ryan's top target Sunday.

Miami should also have an improved pass rush, with Joey Porter and his 17 1/2 sacks getting support from the return of Jason Taylor, who will start at the other outside linebacker position.

Offensively, the Dolphins face a young and inexperienced defense.

The Falcons brought in five new defensive starters after finishing 25th in the league against the run, and 24th overall.

Peria Jerry, a 6-foot-2, 294-pound defensive tackle from Ole Miss who Atlanta drafted with the 24th overall pick this year, will start his first NFL game against Miami.

The Falcons also promoted free safety Thomas DeCloud, outside linebacker Stephen Nicholas and cornerback Brent Grimes.

The new-look secondary struggled in the preseason, allowing a whopping 8.3 yards per completion, which should excite a veteran passer like Chad Pennington.

Ted Ginn will start at one wide receiver position, while Coach Tony Sparano said the team will rotate several receivers at the other spot, from among Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess and Ohio State rookie Brian Hartline. The Dolphins will also likely find time for another rookie, Patrick Turner of USC.

Running the football was a problem for the Dolphins in preseason, particularly with the first unit. That will have to change, so the Dolphins can keep defensive end John Abraham and his team-leading 16 1/2 sacks at bay.

Also, the Dolphins will likely break out the "Wildcat" formation that has become a staple of offenses across the league.

Second round pick Pat White did not run the "Wildcat" during preseason, but he could be called upon to give the Falcons something else to think about.

The Dolphins defense may not stop Michael Turner, but I think they will be able to slow him down.

Ryan and his offense are too talented to be shut down, but Pennington is going against a young defense that will surely make some mistakes.

I think Miami will get just enough offense to eke out a win, 20-16.

NFL breakdown: Dolphins second in East

The time for waiting is just about over, as the NFL kicks off with tonight's Tennessee Titans-Pittsburgh Steelers matchup.

The Dolphins kick off at 1 p.m. Sunday in Atlanta, the first of three straight games against playoff opponents in 2009. So, how will the Fins do this year? My AFC East predictions follows, as well as my overall NFL predictions for 2009:

AFC East
1. New England Patriots (11-5): Yes, Tom Brady is coming off a major knee injury, and the Pats just traded away five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Richard Seymour. But the Patriots have a wealth of talent on both sides of the ball, and with Bill Belichick at the controls, they are always a threat. Belichick may have done his best coaching job ever last season, when he took Matt Cassel and the Pats to 11-5, narrowly missing a playoff berth. With Brady back, look for fireworks similar to 2007, when New England set the all-time scoring mark, and Brady threw for 50 TDs and Moss added a record 23 receiving scores. The defense ranked 10th last year despite having a porous secondary. Belichick addressed that need by signing free agents Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden. Linebacker Jerrod Mayo should continue to improve, after massing 126 tackles last season. And Vince Wiflork anchors a good defenseive line that will benefit from the addition of Derrick Burgess. Still the team to beat in the conference.

2. Miami Dolphins (10-6): The Dolphins have a tougher schedule than in last year's worst-to-first campaign, but they are a better team than last year. Chad Pennington is now fully in control of the offense, after coming in off the street to play in Week 1 last year. Ted Ginn is entering the all-important third year when wide receivers typically start to flourish. And he has plenty of help behind him in rookies Brian Hartline and Patrick Turner, and veterans Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess. The team made its biggest strides defensively, as rookie corners Sean Smith and Vontae Davis were drafted to shore up a pass defense that ranked 25th a year ago. The additions of Jason Taylor and CFL sack master Cameron Wake should give Joey Porter the help he needs in the pass rush.

3. New York Jets (5-11): The Jets' opening schedule is as brutal as Miami's: at Houston, home against New England and Tennessee, at New Orleans and at Miami. I can't see them winning more than one game in that stretch. From there it doesn't get much easier, and breaking in a rookie starting quarterback and a new defensive scheme will take some time. Still, the Jets do have some good talent, with Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and sleeper Shonn Greene at running back. Dustin Keller is an emerging tight end, Kris Jenkins a good nose tackle if he can stay healthy and Darrelle Revis is becoming one of the best cover men in football. Kerry Rhodes and Jim Leonhard will comprise one of the best safety tandems in the league, and you can't overlook the impact former Ravens linebacker Bart Scott will have on the defense. This is definitely a team to watch in the future.

4. Buffalo Bills (4-12): It's never a good sign when you whack your offensive coordinator a week before the season starts, and an even worse sign when he says the team with Terrell Owens is trying to simplify things on offense. The addition of T.O. to a young and impressionable roster was already dicey, and if things go south -- as they should with Buffalo's schedule -- Owens won't be the happiest Bill in town. The Bills struggled to move the ball during the preseason, even with T.O. The jury is still out on Trent Edwards as a passer, and running back Marshawn Lynch is suspended for the first three games following an offseason arrest for gun possession. Defensively, the Bills have an up-and-comer in second-year cornerback Leodis McKelvin, and middle linebacker Paul Posluszny was solid in his first season with 110 tackles. Defensive end Aaron Schobel is back after missing most of last season due to injury, and Marcus Stroud should hold his ground at defensive tackle. There are some good building blocks here, but the Bills are another year (and perhaps a new head coach) away from contending.

Now, for my truncated picks in the rest of the NFL.

AFC North:
The last time the Pittsburgh Steelers won the Super Bowl, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was injured in a motorcycle accident and struggled the following season, and the Steelers fell to 8-8 and out of the playoffs. After last year's Super Bowl win, Roethlisberger was accused of raping a woman, but the Steelers have too much talent to repeat a playoff miss in 2009. They will not win the division though, as the Baltimore Ravens are primed and ready to supplant Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco has grown more confident as a passer in this, his second year, and the Ravens are about to unleash coordinator Cam Cameron's version of "LT Lite," Ray Rice, who will do his best LaDainian Tomlinson impersonation, catching passes and running the ball all over the field.

AFC South:
Many are predicting the Indianapolis Colts' demise after the retirement of Tony Dungy and the release of all-time leading receiver Marvin Harrison. But despite a rushing offense and defense that struggled last season, I think the Colts will be fine, and should win their division after a one-year absence. Peyton Manning is still running the offense, Joseph Addai will benefit from the addition of Donald Brown in the running game, and Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez and tight end Dallas Clark will keep the passing game humming. I also like the fact first-year coach Jim Caldwell has beefed up a defensive line that was mainly responsible for the Colts' woes against the run. Now, I'm going to jump on the Houston Texans bandwagon and pick them to finally make the leap and finish second, qualifying for a playoff berth. The Texans simply have too much offensive talent, and they have some star defensive players who should help make the difference.

AFC West:
Clearly the worst division in the conference, with the only team worth mentioning being the San Diego Chargers, who should win their division more comfortably than last year. The Chargers have too many offensive stars, and linebacker Shawne Merriman and cornerback Antonio Cromartie are both healthy after injuries torpedoed their 2008.

Dark horse: Tennessee. The Titans have a difficult schedule and won't repeat last year's 13-3 season, but they have a rejuvenated Kerry Collins and the two-headed running back duo of Chris Johnson and LenDale White. Their defense remains sound, even without Albert Haynesworth. If Indy or Houston stumble, the Titans could sneak into the playoffs.

NFC East:
If not for injuries, free agent defections and the death of coordinator Jim Johnson, I would like the Philadelphia Eagles to win the division. But the fact is, the defense suffered too many losses and did not look good in the preseason. Thus, I go with the safe pick, the New York Giants. The Giants are largely the same team that went 12-4 and won the division last year, except Plaxico Burress is no longer on the roster, and the G-Men added to their already deep defenaive line with the additions of Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard -- not to mention the return of Osi Umenyiora after a torn ACL ended his 2008 season. This team would be my NFC favorite if not for one glaring weakness: Wide receiver, where Eli Manning must work with the likes of Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, Mario Manningham and second round pick Hakeem Nicks. If one of those players can emerge and give Eli a reliable target, the G-Men may be booking hotel space in Miami in January. Despite the defensive issues, I still think the Eagles have more talent than the Cowboys, who have taken a clear step back since their 13-3 season two years ago. The Giants and Eagles will make the playoffs again.

NFC North:
With all the offseason moves, this division has supplanted the East as the toughest in the NFL. The Bears have the easiest schedule in football, and the addition of quarterback Jay Cutler should put them over the top. The offense is finally good enough to balance out what has been one of the best defenses in football the last few years. The Green Bay Packers are the second choice. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers will join the elite this year, and he directed an offense that was unstoppable in the preseason. The defense was just as good, forcing 23 turnovers in just four preseason games. The Brett Favre experiment in Minnesota will end the way the Jets' did last year, with Favre's team out of the playoffs -- and Brett once again engaging in another long offseason Hamlet soliloquy.

NFC South:
The Atlants Falcons will continue their upward climb with a division championship in 2009. Quarterback Matt Ryan should be better in this, his second year, and he has plenty of offensive firepower in running back Michael Turner, receiver Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez. Five new starters on defense -- including former Jacksonville Jaguars standout Mike Peterson -- should bolster a unit that ranked just 24th overall last season. Thanks to a difficult schedule (and Jake Delhomme at quarterback), the Panthers will finish second, but miss out on the postseason.

NFC West:
Like their AFC counterparts, the NFC West offers the least in 2009. The Arizona Cardinals had a dream season in winning the division and reaching their first Super Bowl, but losing Super Bowl teams usually miss the playoffs the following season. The problem is, none of their NFC West brethren are good enough to take the division from them. The Cards should cruise, with the resurgent Seattle Seahawks applying the pressure. St. Louis and San Francisco are at least a year away from contention.

Dark horse: Minnesota. The Vikings have the defense and the running game, and they've added weapons like Percy Harvin at receiver. But the biggest question is the quarterback. Can the 40-year-old Favre defy the odds (and his gunslinger mentality) to lead the Vikes to the playoffs? Well, Favre faded badly in his last five games with the Jets in 2008, and he does have a propensity for throwing bad interceptions to cost his team. If he can somehow curtail his tendencies -- and stay healthy all year -- Minnesota has a chance.

So, here's how I break down the playoffs:

Wild Card Round:

Steelers over Colts, Chargers over Texans, Falcons over Eagles, Packers over Cardinals

Divisional Round:
Patriots over Steelers, Ravens over Chargers, Bears over Falcons, Packers over Giants

Championship Round:
Ravens over Patriots, Packers over Bears

Super Bowl XLIV:
Packers over Ravens

(Photo: Yahoo images)

Chiefs cut Thomas; next stop: Miami?

Last week, a rumor circulated saying former Miami Dolphins linebacker Zach Thomas was set to retire.

Agent Drew Rosehaus denied it, but it may become a reality sooner than Thomas thinks. Sunday, the seven-time Pro Bowler was cut by Kansas City after failing to appear in any preseason games.

The question is: What now? Does Thomas hang up his cleats, and hope to one day hear his name called for the Hall of Fame?

Or, does he decide on one more regular season run, perhaps with the Dolphins?

Miami made its final 12 roster cuts over the weekend, with the most prominent names released being wide receiver Brandon London, defensive tackle Rodrique Wright and offensive lineman Nate Garner. Tight end David Martin was also placed on injured reserve.

But if you take a close look at the roster, you'll notice the Dolphins are only carrying three inside linebackers: Channing Crowder, Akin Ayodele and Reggie Torbor.

Crowder is the starter at Mike inside linebacker, Ayodele is the Mo inside linebacker, and Torbor backs up Ayodele.

Ayodele is also Crowder's backup, which means an injury to him would be especially devastating to the team.

Provided Thomas has fully recovered from an undisclosed injury -- and Rosenhaus said he was close to returning to the field last week -- wouldn't he fit right in at his old position, backing up and mentoring Crowder as he did when the former Gator first entered the league?

Thomas was cut last year by the Dolphins, in one of the first big moves in the Bill Parcells-Tony Sparano era.

But, if Parcells and Sparano were willing to take back Jason Taylor this year after the soap opera that played out last preseason, wouldn't they be willing to take back Thomas, who was still a functional player after tallying 65 tackles and 29 assists with the Cowboys in 2008?

And you know Thomas would like to return to the team he started his career with, especially with the Dolphins becoming winners again.

It would be the perfect ending to a great career, and he and brother-in-law Taylor could ride into the NFL sunset together.

Will it happen, though? At this point, it's pure conjecture. It would be a great story, to be sure. And judging from the Dolphins depth chart, perhaps a necessary move as well.

Smith starring
One thing is certain as the Dolphins prepare for opening day against Atlanta, rookie Sean Smith will be the starting cornerback. Smith topped a good preseason with an outstanding one-handed interception against the New Orleans Saints last Thursday, in Miami's 10-7 win.

The play has already hit You Tube, and it cemented Smith's place as the most intriguing rookie on the team this year. It was the second interception in three preseason games for the former Utah star, who started college as a wide receiver.

At 6-foot-3, 214 pounds, Smith is exactly the type of big, athletic corner the Dolphins need, now that they have to tangle with Terrell Owens and Randy Moss twice a year.

Also, with the current trend in the NFL towards big receivers, Smith may be the first in a wave of big corners defensive coordinators will look to in an attempt to stem the tide.

SI picks Dolphins second
The current NFL preview issue of Sports Illustrated picks the Dolphins to finish second in the AFC East, behind the New England Patriots.

Peter King projects the Dolphins will finish 8-8 and out of the playoff picture, while New England will go 13-3 and win Super Bowl XLIV.

I'll have my own prognostication later in the week, but I've written before that the Dolphins could have a better team and finish with a worse record by virtue of their tough schedule.

Williams re-signs
Ricky Williams re-signed with the Dolphins for one year, $4.35 million. That's a substantial raise from the $3.4 million he's scheduled to make this year as Ronnie Brown's backup.

Williams plans on retiring after next year to pursue a career in holistic medicine. Williams, 32, averaged 4.1 yards per carry last year, and gained 659 yards rushing. He also caught 29 passes for 219 yards and scored five combined TDs.

If he does decide to retire after next year, it's safe to say Dolphins fans will have mixed emotions, and wonder what might have been.

Williams only had four 1,000-yard seasons, with his apex coming in 2002, his first year with the Dolphins. That year, Williams set a team record with 1,853 rushing yards, and he scored 16 TDs, another Dolphins record for running backs.

The following season, he had another big year with 1,372 yards and nine TDs.

But carrying the load took its toll, and Willliams famously "retired" prior to the start of the 2004 season, taking with him all hopes for a Dolphins Super Bowl run, and eventuially costing Dave Wannstedt his job as head coach.

Williams was burned out and needed to recharge, and in doing so may have cost himself a chance at true greatness on the football field.

His career will always provide one of the great "what ifs" in Dolphins history.

(Photo: Yahoo Images)

Marino 8th in latest QB rankings

You could see this one coming. As Dan Marino's achievements fade in this new era of the West Coast offense and more permissible passing rules, he continues to slide down the list of all-time greats.

Marino placed eighth on a Beckett's Magazine list of the greatest quarterbacks, and for the first time I can recall, modern stars Tom Brady (6th) and Peyton Manning (7th) were ranked ahead of him.

It has for a long time been a fait accompli, what with Brady's Super Bowl winning heroics, and the incredible numbers he put up in 2007, when he passed for 50 TDs and just eight interceptions. Brady set a new all-time record for TD passes that Marino once held for 20 years.

Manning cemented his claim ahead of Marino when his defense and running game carried him to a Super Bowl win in Miami two years ago.

Now, Manning's regular season credentials speak for themselves, but his 49-TD season in 2004 (which broke Marino's record) coincided with the NFL passing a rule limiting defensive contact with receivers after Manning's group was manhandled by the New England Patriots in an AFC Championship loss the previous year.

And, when I lived in Lake City and was exposed to more Colts games because I was out of the Dolphins' coverage area, it appeared that Manning was left in a bit longer than he should have been to throw some meaningless TD passes.

Case in point: Manning plays the entire game and throws five TD passes in a 49-14 win over Houston in Week 10. A week later, four TDs in a 41-10 win over the Chicago Bears. On Thanksgiving Day the next week, he throws six TD passes against the eternally hapless Lions, giving him 15 in three weeks. Again, he plays into the fourth quarter in the 41-9 victory, throwing his last two TD passes in the third quarter.

When Brady set the new record two years ago, his team was accused of running up the score, particularly in a 52-7 whitewashing of the Redskins in Week 8.

This was something that wasn't often done in Marino's day.

In 1984, when he set the then-record with 48 TD passes, the Dolphins won only one game by 20 points, meaning he had to throw those TD passes to deliver victories, not to pad stats as Brady and Manning seemed to do in their record runs.

Also, it's no coincidence that Brady and Manning both eclipsed his record after restrictions were placed on defensive backs in terms of contact with receivers.

That makes Marino's 48 TDs all the more impressive, and it makes John Unitas' streak of 47 straight games with at least one TD pass and his 290 overall TDs look downright remarkable.

Still, I have no real problem with Manning and Brady being ranked ahead of Marino, though I put them after him as their careers are still in progress (see below). They have the numbers and championships, while Marino unfortunately did not have the supporting cast to help him win a title.

Of the players on the list ahead of him, there are two I strongly disagree with, and a third I have an issue with (see below).

Terry Bradshaw won four Super Bowls with the Steelers, but his overall numbers were not very impressive. He had a poor TD/INT ratio, with 212 TD passes to 210 interceptions. He had four bad years before he became a good quarterback in 1974, and he benefited from perhaps the greatest supporting cast a quarterback ever had.

To place him at No. 4, like Beckett's did, is absurd. Bradshaw does belong in the top 10, but he belongs after Marino. Bart Starr, a great quarterback for the Packers teams of the 1960s, was also ranked ahead of Marino at No. 5. He didn't have great natural ability, but he was a winner.

Starr was only a four-time Pro Bowler, and had just 14 more TDs than INTs (152/134). He never threw 20 TD passes in a season. His ranking might have to do with the fact the Packers were the dominant team in the 1960s, winning five NFL titles.

Here's the Beckett list:

1. Joe Montana
2. John Unitas
3. John Elway
4. Terry Bradshaw
5. Bart Starr
6. Tom Brady
7. Peyton Manning
8. Dan Marino
9. Otto Graham
10. Brett Favre
11. Troy Aikman
12. Steve Young
13. Roger Staubach
14. Fran Tarkenton
15. Joe Namath
16. Sammy Baugh
17. Bobby Layne
18. Dan Fouts
19. Bob Griese
20. Jim Kelly

I have some other problems with the list, and one of them is John Elway. It's amazing what a great running game and good defense can do for a player. Elway was a bust in his first three Super Bowl appearances, including a dreadful 55-10 loss to the 49ers and Montana in 1990.

Suddenly though, Mike Shanahan comes aboard, as do Terrell Davis and a competent defense, Elway wins two Super Bowls, and he becomes a top-five all-time QB.

Had he never won a Super Bowl, Elway never would have been ranked ahead of Marino. And that's the problem I have with QB lists like these, which place far too great an emphasis on championships.

Peter King wrote a book years ago ranking his top QBs, and he made Otto Graham his No. 1 all-time because his teams won division or league titles in all 10 years he played.

So, because Graham had great players around him (nine Hall of Famers, if you count Coach Paul Brown), he's supposed to be better than Unitas or Montana?

I highly doubt that.

Elway had several mediocre years statistics-wise, and while I enjoyed watching him play, there is no doubt that in their primes Marino was better. Marino also played at a high level for as long as Elway did.

Elway had six seasons of 20 TD passes or more; Marino had 12. Marino had more yards passing, a higher completion percentage and a far better QB rating.

But, because Elway ended his career in storybook fashion, the myth has become legend. He became better than Marino in many people's minds, and sadly, that will remain the case in history.

Legends fade as new generations arrive, ready to anoint one of their own as the best ever. We've seen it in the NBA with Michael Jordan and Shaquille O'Neal, eclipsing the greatness of Jerry West, Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain in most people's minds.

And in baseball, where Barry Bonds was suddenly greater than Babe Ruth (before steroids), and Roger Clemens was the greatest right-hand pitcher of all-time (again, pre-steroids).

Well, football is a team sport, moreso than basketball and baseball -- where one or two great pitchers can carry a team to a title -- and the fact is Marino played with only three top-10 defenses in his career. Twice, he made the conference championship (1984, 1992). He had one 1,000-yard running back (the forgettable Karim Abdul-Jabbar in 1996).

Statistics are not the entire story, but neither are championships. You must place each in context of the circumstances surrounding the player.

And for me, the only QB who topped Marino during his generation was Montana, who had gaudy stats, the clutch play and the Super Bowl victories to back him up.

Finally, here's my all-time top 10 for you to dissect:

1. Unitas (set the standard for QBs in a different era)
2. Montana
3. Marino
4. Elway
5. Baugh (the first great QB)
6. Brady (will probably move up when his career ends)
7. Manning (ditto)
8. Staubach
9. Young (another underrated QB)
10. Bradshaw

(Photo: Yahoo images)

Dolphins D faces stiff test

They've been bend-but-don't break the entire preseason, but Thursday night the Dolphins defense must play at a high level to contain the red-hot Drew Brees and his New Orleans Saints offense.

Brees is coming off a season in which he passed for the second-most yards in history, joining Dolphins Hall-of-Famer Dan Marino as the only qwuarterbacks to top 5,000 yards in a season.

And last week against the hapless Oakland Raiders, Brees put on a passing clinic, hitting on 14-of-17 throws for 179 yards and two TDs in one half of action.

In three games, Brees has tossed four TDs, no interceptions, and has an astounding QB rating of 132.7.

The Saints rang up a 38-0 halftime lead on the way to a 45-7 blowout.

The overall numbers from the game are staggering, even for preseason.

The Saints tallied an incredible 31 first downs and 536 yards of total offense -- without starting running backs Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush.

According to the Saints Web site, Thomas will not play due to a sprained MCL, while Bush is questionable with a calf injury.

Still, as the Saints proved last week, they have plenty of weapons in their offensive repertoire.

Third receiver Robert Meachem caught a 71-yard pass, and Devery Henderson added three catches for 69 yards, including a 40-yard TD. There was also a Jeremy Shockey sighting, as the tight end caught four passes for 48 yards on the day.

New Orleans is 3-0 and ranks first in the league in preseason in points per game (33), total yards (424) and most surprisingly, the Saints are second in rushing, averaging 163.7 yards per game.

Defensively, the Saints have been shockingly stingy, ranking third in the NFL allowing an average of only 9.3 points per game. The Dolphins are right behind the Saints with a 10.7 average.

With Will Smith and new addition Paul Spicer beefing up the defensive line, the Saints have ranked first in rush defense, holding opponents to 70.7 yards per game.

That will make it tough on a Dolphins running game that has yet to heat up this preseason. Miami ranks 14th in the league with an average of 112.7 yards per game.

The first unit has especially struggled, as Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown have combined for 33 carries for 123 yards and no TDs, as the offensive line has not been able to open any holes inside.

The problems haven't been confined running the ball, as Miami ranks 24th in points (16.3), and 29th in total yards (276.7) and passing (164).

Thursday, the Dolphins will have to step up the tempo to keep pace with the Saints' high octane attack.

The Dolphins defense has been solid overall, though Byron Leftwich had a good day throwing the football last week, and it would have been better had he not missed three open receivers.

Rookie corners Sean Smith and Vontae Davis should again be on the hot seat Thursday, and fans will get a better idea of how ready they are for the regular season in this final tune-up.

The starters don't figure to play much for either team, but the Dolphins' first unit defense will still have its hands full.

Also, the Miami special teams must improve against the Saints, particularly on punt returns, where the Fins are giving up an average of 12.3 yards per runback.

These are just some of the things to watch Thursday.

(Photo: Yahoo images)